The myth that those wishing to reduce risk
are old, inexperienced, don't understand investing, or are
scared.
I'm none of those yet I just don't like to guess, gamble, or
continually speculate.
Risk is also the risk of taking high risk
and losing to the point where the lower risk approach there
forward is no longer enough. Had they instead stuck with lower
risk all along, it would be.
Or, it would take too long for high risk.
While many will speak about the long term edge of higher risk,
we must consider how long we wish to wait. Just because you
MIGHT live to 100 is no reason to expect to. Nor should you
prepare for that if it entails taking more risk. Sure, be smart,
save, etc. But why take higher risk for low odds occurences,
ESPECIALLY since taking higher risk is by no means a guarantee
you'll even do better (in fact, average real world investors do
worse).
The key is not the date you die but
through the date you are coherent, value money, need ALL of the
money. If a person were to live to 80, at 70 they won't need as
much as when they were 60.
But, they don't mention all those who were
in for years then the market tanked. By the time the market
recovers they'll be at the anticipated end date of their term.
BUT, wall street will be showing high risk return from the
bottom through the top. Or, if they show another start date,
they'll start before that investor started or some other bottom.
Sadly, we are not able to go back in time
and choose different start dates, purchasing, etc.
Despite the hype, there is a level of risk
that real world investors should not exceed. You won't hear this
because there is no incentive for the industry to say this.
Real world investors have significant
constraints while their competitors have enormous advantages.
The key is not so much skill but being able to bet big, lump sum
in/out, being certain, being unaffected, etc.
They like to generlize that it's either
you prepare for retirement by taking higher risk OR you don't
prepare for retirement (as if that's the only alternative).
Big opportunity orienation rather than making it up in my
head. The best investing is when the market provides the
opportunity rather than being arrogant thinking you can get
blood from a stone.
Too much additional time. The higher the
risk the more time I feel compelled to put in.
Excessive trading.
Having to use defense even when the odds
say stay (becuase the potential negative consequences are
enormous).
Risk/return is theoretical. The greater the risk the more
it's just "in theory". If not, everyone would bet the ranch and
get a good return.
You must get many other
things right. High risk is simply that SOME high risk things
have higher potential. Just because something has more risk does
NOT mean it necessarily has greater potential. there are
countless high risk scams that I get in my email.
High risk means high odds of failure. If it were high odds of
success, it wouldn't be high risk. How can you get 10%+ with low
odds of failure? I guess the downside has to be huge. Look at
the risk scale: Tbills on one end, lottery tickets on the other.
High risk varies. From max. high to just high.
Odds vary.
Payoff varies even if the same odds/risk. One slot machine
has same payoff yet better odds. One game has better odds than
the other yet hte same payoff. One state's 5 # lottery had
500,000:1 odds and a $100,000 payoff. Another
state had the same payoff and yet 350,000:1
Never assume the odds makers are all the same. And, all are
equally ethical or knowledgeable.
There are many asset classes
that are higher risk than stocks yet have lower potential.
Besides, potential is not enough. What are the ODDS OF
REACHING THAT POTENTIAL?
Consequences?
How much time does it take?
I may be fine with that kind of return if given to me
today, but not if I'll be ancient when I get it. If the net
return is 5% (don't fixate on gross returns), that will take
about 14 years to double (using the rule of 72, as my
calculator isn't handy). But, as we age, that is ever less
worth doing. Not only would we have 14 fewer years to enjoy it
(if any), there's a point in our life where quality slips
and/or you don't even need half of what you got (especially
given the annual income generated off it).
Sure, you hear rich cats saying do that, but that's only
because they have tons of money to live on outside of any
buy/hold, high risk bet they MIGHT have (though it wouldn't be
the first time a person said one thing and did another).
And/or a high salary. It's one thing to do that if you are
living it up meantime and will never need that money (it's
pure gravy if you win, and nothing if you lose).
Instantaneous results where your only money at risk is the
initial bet. Lottery vs. penny stocks.
The great myth of
compounding hypesters is that your only risk is the inital
bet! Try telling that to people in 2002 who had lost
thousands. As if they were happy being told: John, you only
bet 10,000 way back in 1990 so you didn't lose a penny.
Nonsense. Subsequent amounts are your capital, your bet.
Worse, they are higher dollar amoutns, probably higher % of
your net worth, and you are OLDER and will defintely lose more
than you've ever come close to losing even if you lose the
same % as the last bear.
Losing 50% of a
higher amount when you are also older is NOT the same.
The closer you get
to good enough the more you will LATER (after the INEVITABLE
fall or just slowdown) regret having not reduce the risk. THe
problem is that late bull your inhibitions will be lowered and
yo won't be thining clearly (hyped left and right).
Deliberate, overly careful. I tend to double and triple
check. As such I can't have too many aggressive positions.
Imagine how draining this is if you have a few positions to
monitor. Egad. The higher the risk, the more overly careful.
Annoyance.
It jusn't isn't wise to bet the ranch. Yet, in aggressive
investing you have to bet a ton to have a shot of making it pay
off. The odds are low you'll even beat market level risk. Since
you're taking more risk you should beat the market or else it
was a waste. And, beat it significantly. AND, add a significant
chunk of money.
It just isn't right that you would ever bet and suffer excess
stress, lost sleep. Why PURPOSELY seek out situations that
guarantee this? There's enough stressful things beyond your
control that you are FORCED to deal with, why add more?
It should not be the case that any bet would negatively
impact you now or in the future. Why let OTHER PEOPLE'S whims
impact you? The higher your risk the more you are at the mercy
of others. I jsut don't want other people pulling my strings. I
am not a puppet.
It's not about cowardice, lack of experience, ignorance, lack
of investment knowledge that leads one to respect money and seek
to minimize loss and PRESERVE what I have worked hard, put in
time, and make good decisions. It's the opposite. Just as I want
to preserve what I have in "regular life" my car, house, musical
instrument, baseball card collection, so to do I seek to
preserve my money. I wouldn't leave out my computer in direct
sunlight. Does that make me a coward? That computer represents
money.
I want to LOCK in my past smart decisions. Why continually
subject it to reversing those? Just like I wouldn't want an old
boss sending a bill for the salary I have been paid.
I want to LOCK in gains from time and effort I have put in.
Why chance losing it and thus all the years? You can't get that
time back. If you lose it, the whole period was a wash. Any
subsequent gains are SEPARATE and past is still, and always will
be a total waste. Is having a respect for my time and demanding
compensation be retained ignorance?
The older one gets the ever more likley that a lower risk
approach will provide ENOUGH money. If they have to lower costs,
big deal. They don't live worse than the guy sweating every down
day, who knows DEEP DOWN that he's just guessing and has 0
control over the outcome. The gambler does NOT live better
during the period. Maybe brief excess up days. |